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Descripción
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| Aggregated econometric models are a very useful tool to analyze the evolution of road accidents and the effect of exposure, socioeconomic factors and measures taken by the administration on accident rates and severities. There are different sources of uncertainty which require the application of a statistical approach, where time-series models derived from the original Box-Jenkins framework are preferably selected. The models present different degrees of sophistication, and the simplest are chosen whenever possible, thus facilitating interpretation and respecting the principle of parsimony. Here we focus on two very relevant model categories: the Demand for Road use, Accidents and their Gravity (DRAG) methodology, developed by Gaudry (1984) and Unobserved Components Model (UCM) with intervention proposed by Harvey and Durbin (1986) were some effects are modeled through latent variables within a state-space framework. Here we apply the two models to the general Spanish Accident Data Base whenever vans are involved and compare the results in terms of goodness of fit, in the framework of the research Project FURGOSEG - P24/08 ?Development and application of an integrated methodology for the study of the traffic accidents with LTVs involved?, of the Spanish National Research Plan 2008-2011. | |
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Internacional
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No |
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Nombre congreso
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Congreso Ingeniería del Transporte CIT 2012 |
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Tipo de participación
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960 |
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Lugar del congreso
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Granada |
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Revisores
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Si |
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ISBN o ISSN
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978-84-338-5402-5 |
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DOI
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Fecha inicio congreso
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20/06/2012 |
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Fecha fin congreso
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22/06/2012 |
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Desde la página
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1 |
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Hasta la página
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10 |
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Título de las actas
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Libro de actas |