Observatorio de I+D+i UPM

Memorias de investigación
Research Publications in journals:
Traffic uncertainty in toll motorway concessions in Spain
Year:2012
Research Areas
  • Engineering,
  • Transport
Information
Abstract
This study assessed the inaccuracy of the traffic estimates for toll motorway concessions in Spain. It was found that the estimates conducted by both the government and the concessionaire showed a significant bias towards overestimating traffic. The level of overestimation in Spain is even greater than that reported by other studies based on worldwide data. The notorious levels of overestimation entail severe burdens to the economics of the concessionaires that often prompt renegotiations of the contracts, which are often accepted by the government. These renegotiations usually end up with toll changes or extension of the concession terms, which have to be ultimately borne by future motorway users. It is postulated herein that the bias towards overestimating traffic in toll motorways in Spain is mostly caused by strategic issues rather than by modelling errors.
International
Si
JCR
Si
Title
Proceedings of the ICE - Transport
ISBN
0965-092X
Impact factor JCR
0,295
Impact info
POSICIÓN QUE OCUPA LA REVISTA EN LA CATEGORÍA: 101 de 115
Volume
165
Journal number
2
From page
97
To page
105
Month
MAYO
Ranking
Participants
  • Autor: María de los Ángeles Baeza
  • Autor: Jose Manuel Vassallo Magro (UPM)
Research Group, Departaments and Institutes related
  • Creador: Centro o Instituto I+D+i: Centro de Investigación del Transporte
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