Observatorio de I+D+i UPM

Memorias de investigación
Book chapters:
An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis
Research Areas
  • Physics chemical and mathematical
Expert knowledge is used to assign probabilities to events in many risk analysis models. However, experts sometimes find it hard to provide specific values for these probabilities, preferring to express vague or imprecise terms that are mapped using a previously defined fuzzy number scale. The rigidity of these scales generates bias in the probability elicitation process and does not allow experts to adequately express their probabilistic judgments. We present an interactive method for extracting a fuzzy number from experts that represents their probabilistic judgments for a given event, along with a quality measure of the probabilistic judgments, useful in a final information filtering and analysis sensitivity process.
Book Edition
Book Publishing
CRC Press. Taylor & Francis Group
Book title
Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response
From page
To page
  • Autor: Eloy Vicente Cestero (UPM)
  • Autor: Antonio Jimenez Martin (UPM)
  • Autor: Alfonso Mateos Caballero (UPM)
Research Group, Departaments and Institutes related
  • Creador: Grupo de Investigación: Grupo de análisis de decisiones y estadística
  • Departamento: Inteligencia Artificial
S2i 2020 Observatorio de investigación @ UPM con la colaboración del Consejo Social UPM
Cofinanciación del MINECO en el marco del Programa INNCIDE 2011 (OTR-2011-0236)
Cofinanciación del MINECO en el marco del Programa INNPACTO (IPT-020000-2010-22)