Abstract



The purpose of this work is to provide a description of the heavy rainfall phenomenon on statistical tools from a Spanish region. We want to quantify the effect of the climate change to verify the rapidity of its evolution across the variation of the probability distributions. Our conclusions have special interest for the agrarian insurances, which may make estimates of costs more realistically. In this work, the analysis mainly focuses on: The distribution of consecutive days without rain for each gauge stations and season. We estimate density Kernel functions and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) for a network of station from the Ebro River basin until a threshold value u. We can establish a relation between distributional parameters and regional characteristics. Moreover we analyze especially the tail of the probability distribution. These tails are governed by law of power means that the number of events n can be expressed as the power of another quantity x : n(x) = x? . ? can be estimated as the slope of loglog plot the number of events and the size. The most convenient way to analyze n(x) is using the empirical probability distribution. Pr(X > x) ? x?. The distribution of rainfall over percentile of order 0.95 from wet days at the seasonal scale and in a yearly scale with the same treatment of tails than in the previous section.  
International

Si 
JCR

Si 
Title

Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences 
ISBN

15618633 
Impact factor JCR

1,983 
Impact info

Datos JCR del año 2011 
Volume

12 

10.5194/nhess1221272012 
Journal number


From page

2127 
To page

2137 
Month

SIN MES 
Ranking
