Observatorio de I+D+i UPM

Memorias de investigación
Ponencias en congresos:
System Failure Prediction Through Rare-Events Elastic-Net Logistic Regression
Año:2014
Áreas de investigación
  • Ciencias de la computación y tecnología informática,
  • Ingeniería eléctrica, electrónica y automática
Datos
Descripción
Predicting failures in a distributed system based on previous events through logistic regression is a standard approach in literature. This technique is not reliable, though, in two situations: in the prediction of rare events, which do not appear in enough proportion for the algorithm to capture, and in environments where there are too many variables, as logistic regression tends to overfit on this situations; while manually selecting a subset of variables to create the model is error- prone. On this paper, we solve an industrial research case that presented this situation with a combination of elastic net logistic regression, a method that allows us to automatically select useful variables, a process of cross-validation on top of it and the application of a rare events prediction technique to reduce computation time. This process provides two layers of cross- validation that automatically obtain the optimal model complexity and the optimal mode l parameters values, while ensuring even rare events will be correctly predicted with a low amount of training instances. We tested this method against real industrial data, obtaining a total of 60 out of 80 possible models with a 90% average model accuracy.
Internacional
Si
Nombre congreso
AIMS 2014, Second International Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Modeling and Simulation
Tipo de participación
960
Lugar del congreso
Madrid, Spain
Revisores
Si
ISBN o ISSN
978-1-4799-7599-0
DOI
Fecha inicio congreso
18/11/2014
Fecha fin congreso
20/11/2014
Desde la página
120
Hasta la página
126
Título de las actas
2014 Second International Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Modelling and Simulation
Esta actividad pertenece a memorias de investigación
Participantes
  • Autor: Juan Carlos Dueñas Lopez (UPM)
Grupos de investigación, Departamentos, Centros e Institutos de I+D+i relacionados
  • Creador: Grupo de Investigación: Sistemas de tiempo real y arquitectura de servicios telemáticos
  • Departamento: Ingeniería de Sistemas Telemáticos
  • Centro o Instituto I+D+i: CENTER FOR OPEN MIDDLEWARE (COM)(Centro Tecnológico Mixto)
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