Observatorio de I+D+i UPM

Memorias de investigación
Communications at congresses:
Explaining heavy vehicle demand evolution in toll roads: a dynamic panel data approach in Spain
Year:2014
Research Areas
  • Transport
Information
Abstract
Improving the knowledge of demand evolution over time is a key aspect in the evaluation of transport policies and in forecasting future investment needs, specially critical for the case of toll roads. However, literature regarding demand elasticity estimates in toll roads is sparse and leaves some important aspects to be analyzed in greater detail. In particular, previous research does not focus on heavy vehicle demand, so that the specific behavioral patterns of this traffic segment are not taken into account. Furthermore, GDP is the main socioeconomic variable most commonly chosen to explain road freight traffic growth over time. This paper seeks to determine the variables that better explain the evolution of heavy vehicle demand in toll roads over time. To that end, we present a dynamic panel data methodology aimed at identifying the key socioeconomic variables that explain the behavior of road freight traffic throughout the years. The results show that, despite the usual practice, GDP may not constitute a suitable explanatory variable for heavy vehicle demand. Rather, considering only the GDP of those sectors with a high impact on transport demand, such as construction or industry, leads to more consistent results. The methodology is applied to Spanish toll roads for the 1990-2011 period. This is an interesting case in the international context, as road freight demand has experienced an even greater reduction in Spain than elsewhere, since the beginning of the economic crisis.
International
Si
Congress
XVIII Congreso Panamericano de Ingeniería de Tránsito, Transporte y Logística, PANAM 2014.
960
Place
Santander
Reviewers
Si
ISBN/ISSN
978-84-617-0085-1
Start Date
11/06/2014
End Date
13/06/2014
From page
1
To page
16
Actas del XVIII Congreso Panamericano de Ingeniería de Tránsito, Transporte y Logística, PANAM 2014.
Participants
  • Autor: Juan Gomez Sanchez (UPM)
  • Autor: Jose Manuel Vassallo Magro (UPM)
Research Group, Departaments and Institutes related
  • Creador: Grupo de Investigación: Planificación del Transporte
  • Centro o Instituto I+D+i: Centro de Investigación del Transporte
  • Departamento: Ingeniería Civil: Transporte y Territorio
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