Observatorio de I+D+i UPM

Memorias de investigación
Research Publications in journals:
Crop yield as a bioclimatic index of El Niño impact in Europe: crop forecast implications
Year:2014
Research Areas
  • Meteorology,
  • Agricultural product,
  • Engineering
Information
Abstract
Crop yield is partially determined by atmospheric climate variability, which in turn depends on changes in the sea surface temperature (SST). El Niño is the leading mode of SST interannual variability, and its impacts extend worldwide. Nevertheless, the predictability of these impacts is controversial, especially those associated with European climate variability, which have been found to be non-stationary and non-linear. The present study shows how potential crop yield obtained from reanalysis data and crop models serves as an alternative and more effective index of El Niño teleconnections because it integrates the nonlinearities between the climate variables in a unique time series. The relationships between El Niño and crop yield anomalies are more significant than the individual contributions of each of the atmospheric variables used as input in the crop model. Additionally, the non-stationarities between El Niño and European climate variability are more clearly detected when analyzing crop-yield variability. The understanding of this relationship allows for some predictability up to one year before the crop is harvested. This predictability is not constant, but depends on both high and low frequency modulation. These findings enhance the importance of crop models for impact studies, for the improvement of crop forecasting, and as generators of a climate variability index (the potential yield) for analyzing climate variability and change.
International
Si
JCR
Si
Title
Agricultural And Forest Meteorology
ISBN
0168-1923
Impact factor JCR
3,894
Impact info
Datos JCR del año 2013
Volume
198-199
10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.07.012
Journal number
From page
42
To page
52
Month
NOVIEMBRE
Ranking
Participants
  • Autor: Mirian Irene Capa Morocho (UPM)
  • Autor: Belen Rodriguez-Fonseca (Universidad Complutense de Madrid)
  • Autor: Margarita Ruiz Ramos (UPM)
Research Group, Departaments and Institutes related
  • Creador: Departamento: Producción Agraria
S2i 2020 Observatorio de investigación @ UPM con la colaboración del Consejo Social UPM
Cofinanciación del MINECO en el marco del Programa INNCIDE 2011 (OTR-2011-0236)
Cofinanciación del MINECO en el marco del Programa INNPACTO (IPT-020000-2010-22)