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Descripción
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| Forecasting flash flood events is not straightforward, mainly when they are caused by convective storms. In this contribution, previous progresses made in rainfall forecast throught blending techniques (Atencia et al, 2010) are introduced as input in the probabilistic calibrated hydrological model (RIBS) to obtain an ensemble of forecast hydrographs (Mediero et al, 2011). A previous study (Atencia et al, 2011) has concluded that the optimal temporal resolution of rainfall field for a distributed model in a small-medium size basin is 15 minutes. For this reason, the first step involves a temporal disaggregation of the blended QPF by taking advantage of the fractal properties of the rainfall fields. Once the QPF is disaggregated to the desired temporal resolution, it is introduced in the distributed hydrological model. An ensemble of 50 hydrographs is obtained for each event. If the observed hydrograph peak falls inside this area, the hydrograph peak is accurately predicted. According to this criterion, the warning lead-time of the peak is between 4 and 9 hours. The introduction of blended rainfall forecast (previously disaggregated to the optimal temporal resolution) in a probabilistic calibrated distributed hydrological model increases the warning lead-time of the stream flow peak between 2 and 5 hours | |
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Internacional
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Si |
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Nombre congreso
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Mediterranean meeting on "Monitoring, modelling, early warning of extreme events triggered by heavy rainfall" |
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Tipo de participación
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960 |
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Lugar del congreso
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University of Calabria, Cosenza (Italy) |
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Revisores
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Si |
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ISBN o ISSN
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DOI
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Fecha inicio congreso
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26/06/2014 |
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Fecha fin congreso
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27/06/2014 |
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Título de las actas
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Proceedings of the Mediterranean Meeting on 'Monitoring, modelling and early warning of a extreme events triggered by heavy rainfalls'. PON 01_01503 MED-FRIEND project University of Calabria, Cosenza (Italy), June 26-28, 2014 |