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Descripción
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| Calibrated for the conditions of the French Central Massif (site of Laqueuille), the grassland model PaSim (PastureSimulation model) was used to simulate, for the period 1959-2015, the forage production of a mown grasslandsystem under optimal management conditions, with hourly meteorological inputs extracted from the SAFRANatmospheric database (8-km resolution). The aim was to generate purely climate-dependent time series of forageproduction. An extended analysis of the relationships between interannual forage yield variability and monthlyclimatic anomalies indicates that the highest forage production tends to be associated with brighter (enhancedincident solar radiation), colder and less humid weather conditions occurring during late-spring and early-summer(from May to July), and vice versa. SAFRAN and NCEP/NCAR re-analyses suggest that these seasonal climaticanomalies, observed locally, may be part of an anomalous large-scale atmospheric pattern characterized bypositive (anticyclonic) surface pressure anomalies over the eastern north Atlantic and negative (cyclonic) pressureanomalies south of Scandinavia. Such anomalous atmospheric configuration obstructs the passage ofweather fronts (accompanied by cloudiness) over Western Europe and promotes the advection of cold/dry Arcticair over large parts of France. Overall, when simulated under optimum conditions, harvest yield values appearclosely linked with these climatic anomalies, which tend to appear a few months in advance. This study supportsthe establishment of predictions of seasonal forage production in the French Central Massif, making use of reliablepredictions of these climatic anomalies and projections of their frequency and intensity under future climate.Acknowledgments: MACSUR - Modeling European Agriculture with Climate Change for food Security(FACCE-JPI) funded by Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria (INIA), Juan dela Cierva Fellowships (Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness) and the meta-programme ACCAF(Adaptation of agriculture and forests to climate change) of the French National Institute for Agricultural Research(INRA). | |
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Internacional
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Si |
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ISSN o ISBN
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EGU2018-19461 |
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Entidad relacionada
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Geophysical Research Abstracts. EGU 2018. |
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Nacionalidad Entidad
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Sin nacionalidad |
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Lugar del congreso
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Viena (Austria) |