Descripción
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Explosive cyclones are intense extra-tropical low-pressure systems featuring large deepening rates. In the Euro-Atlantic sector, they are a major source of life-threatening weather impacts due to their associated strong windgusts, heavy precipitation and storm surges. The wintertime variability of the North Atlantic cyclonic activityis primarily modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In this study, we investigate the interannualand multi-decadal variability of explosive North Atlantic cyclones using track density data from two reanaly-sis datasets (NCEP and ERA-40) and a control simulation of an atmosphere/ocean coupled General CirculationModel (GCM?ECHAM5/MPIOM1). The leading interannual and multi-decadal modes of variability of explosivecyclone track density are characterized by a strengthening/weakening pattern between Newfoundland and Iceland,which is mainly modulated by the NAO at both timescales. However, the NAO control of interannual cyclonevariability is not stationary in time and abruptly fluctuates during periods of 20?25 years long both in NCEP andECHAM5/MPIOM1. These transitions are accompanied by structural changes in the leading mode of explosivecyclone variability, and by decreased/enhanced baroclinicity over the sub-polar/sub-tropical North Atlantic. Theinfluence of the ocean is apparently important for both the occurrence and persistence of such anomalous periods.In the GCM, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation appears to influence the large-scale baroclinicity andexplosive cyclone development over the North Atlantic. These results permit a better understanding of explosivecyclogenesis variability at different climatic timescales and might help to improve predictions of these hazardousevents under present and projected greenhouse gas forcing scenarios. | |
Internacional
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Si |
Nombre congreso
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European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018 |
Tipo de participación
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970 |
Lugar del congreso
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Viena |
Revisores
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Si |
ISBN o ISSN
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EGU2018-19638 |
DOI
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Fecha inicio congreso
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08/04/2018 |
Fecha fin congreso
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13/04/2018 |
Desde la página
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1 |
Hasta la página
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1 |
Título de las actas
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EGU2018-19638 |