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Bayesian inference in Safety Compliance Assessment under conditions of uncertainty for ANS providers
Áreas de investigación
  • Ingeniería mecánica, aeronaútica y naval
System Safety Assessment is an integral part of the design and operation of aviation and Air Traffic Management (ATM) systems. The aim of the System Safety Assessment is to identify, quantify and mitigate any and all risks; and to ensure that the system complies with the safety levels established by the regulatory authority. This paper presents an integrated methodology, based on Bayesian inference, for assessing and evaluating compliance with system safety requirements when there is uncertainty regarding the safety performance of ATM systems. The study constructs a Bayesian framework that reformulates the Safety Compliance Assessment as decision making under uncertainty. This framework addresses the main limitations of the System Safety Assessment carried out by Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSPs). Specifically, it: ? Solves the issue of compliance for systems that lack the data and operational history of conventional systems. ? Avoids situations under which limited information, lack of operational data and uncertainty may lead to erroneous conclusions and to the potential certification of a system that does not satisfy the minimum safety performance requirements. ? Constitutes a valid alternative to the arbitrary Margins Of Safety (MOS) considered in the worst-case scenarios for safety assessments, thereby reducing the need for conservative assumptions and safety margins. ? Allows for more inclusive handling of the uncertainties intrinsic to all System Safety Assessments. This leads to increased neutrality and a better understanding of decisions and judgements regarding compliance. The features and advantages of this approach are demonstrated via a case study which assesses whether an Air Navigation Service Provider (ANSP), which has begun to provide services at a new airport with new systems and technology, is compliant with the safety objectives. Specifically, it is necessary to demonstrate compliance with any and all safety requirements applicable to the Air Navigation Systems, in particular VOR, DME and ILS.
Título de la revista
Safety Science
Factor de impacto JCR
Información de impacto
Datos JCR del año 2017
Número de revista
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Esta actividad pertenece a memorias de investigación
  • Autor: Rosa Maria Arnaldo Valdes (UPM)
  • Autor: Victor Fernando Gomez Comendador (UPM)
  • Autor: Javier Alberto Perez Castan (UPM)
  • Autor: Alvaro Rodriguez Sanz (UPM)
  • Autor: Luis Perez Sanz (UPM)
  • Autor: Francisco Javier Saez Nieto (Cranfield University)
  • Autor: Eduardo Sanchez Ayra (UPM)
Grupos de investigación, Departamentos, Centros e Institutos de I+D+i relacionados
  • Creador: Departamento: Sistemas Aeroespaciales, Transporte Aéreo y Aeropuertos
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