Observatorio de I+D+i UPM

Memorias de investigación
Communications at congresses:
Traffic Risk in toll motorway concessions in Spain: An analysis of the ramp-up period.
Year:2008
Research Areas
  • Transport
Information
Abstract
This paper analyzes the behaviour of actual traffic versus the traffic declared by the concessionaire in its offer in toll motorway concessions in Spain during the first few years of operation (ramp-up period). We obtain the result that, on average, there is a clear bias towards overestimation though the behaviour of any single concession may not have much to do with the average. In addition, we found that unlike what happens with annual traffic volumes, traffic growth rates are mostly underestimated by concessionaires in the ramp-up period. We explain this trend towards overestimation in the strategic behaviour of the bidders in the tender rather than in systematic modelling errors. The cause of this strategic behaviour lies in the willingness to renegotiate as shown by the government of Spain when actual traffic turns out to be lower than expected.
International
Si
Congress
Third International Conference on Funding Transport Infrastructure.
960
Place
París
Reviewers
Si
ISBN/ISSN
Start Date
19/06/2008
End Date
20/06/2008
From page
0
To page
0
Participants
  • Autora: Mª DE LOS ÁNGELES BAEZA ((UNIVERSIDAD DE GRANADA))
  • Autor: Jose Manuel Vassallo Magro (UPM)
Research Group, Departaments and Institutes related
  • Creador: Grupo de Investigación: Investigación en Planificación del Transporte
  • Departamento: Ingeniería Civil: Transportes
  • Centro o Instituto I+D+i: Centro de Investigación del Transporte
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