Observatorio de I+D+i UPM

Memorias de investigación
Research Publications in journals:
A Bayesian approach to probabilistic risk assessment in municipal playgrounds
Year:2009
Research Areas
  • Mining industry
Information
Abstract
A bayesian risk assessment of the exposure of children up to 6 years of age to trace elements in the sandy substrate of municipal playgrounds in Madrid, Spain was carried out. As a first step, exposure variables and parameters were borrowed from USEPA¿s databases. However, the use of these non-site specific exposure data introduced a high arbitrariness in the assumed distributions which in the Bayes approach translates into a high uncertainty for those distributions that is also reflected in the risk outcome. In order to reduce this uncertainty, site-specific values for children¿s body weight and exposure frequency were determined from three surveys of 75, 56 and 34 individuals, respectively, carried out in randomly selected playgrounds in Madrid. This information was used in a Bayesian approach to modify the prior distributions of exposure frequency and body weight adapted from the literature. As a result, the predictive distributions of risk values for As and Hg presented a reduced arbitrariness and a significantly lower uncertainty than those obtained either from the prior distributions borrowed from the USEPA, or from the limited data gathered in Madrid separately.
International
Si
JCR
Si
Title
ARCHIVES OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONTAMINATION AND TOXICOLOGY
ISBN
0090-4341
Impact factor JCR
1,864
Impact info
Volume
56
Journal number
0
From page
165
To page
172
Month
ENERO
Ranking
Participants
  • Participante: INÉS IRIBARREN (IGME)
  • Autor: Enrique Chacon Oreja (UPM)
  • Autor: Eduardo de Miguel Garcia (UPM)
Research Group, Departaments and Institutes related
  • Creador: Departamento: Ingeniería Química y Combustibles
  • Departamento: Matemática Aplicada a los Recursos Naturales
S2i 2020 Observatorio de investigación @ UPM con la colaboración del Consejo Social UPM
Cofinanciación del MINECO en el marco del Programa INNCIDE 2011 (OTR-2011-0236)
Cofinanciación del MINECO en el marco del Programa INNPACTO (IPT-020000-2010-22)