Observatorio de I+D+i UPM

Memorias de investigación
Communications at congresses:
Application of Bayesian Belief Networks to the Upper Guadiana Basin
Research Areas
  • Agricultural policy,
  • Applied economics
This paper describes the application of Bayesian Networks to the development of long term water management strategies in the Upper Guadiana basin. Bns are based on the concept of conditional probability and have proved to be a powerful technique to model complex problems where there is uncertainty about the state of the system being modelled, and the data relating to that system. The main objective of the networks is to analyse the effects of different water management options both on the aquifer and on the agricultural economy; that is to say, we are interested in the trade-off between economic and environmental aspects of the system. For this reason the Bn will be used to evaluate the management actions proposed in the Special Plan for the Upper Guadiana Basin (PEAG in Spanish). The main measures proposed in the PEAG are the implementation and actualisation of water abstraction plans, the possibility of purchasing water rights by water authorities and the improvement of the compliance with water law. The economic and hydrological consequences of climate change will also be evaluated.
congreso internacional CAIWA 2007 (International Conference on Adaptive & Integrated Water Management ¿ Coping with complexity and uncertainty)
Basilea (Suiza)
Start Date
End Date
From page
To page
  • Autor: A. de la Hera
  • Autor: P. Zorrilla
  • Autor: J. Bromley
  • Autor: Gema Carmona García (UPM)
  • Autor: H.J. Henriksen
  • Autor: P. Rasmussen
Research Group, Departaments and Institutes related
  • Creador: Grupo de Investigación: Economía Agraria y Gestión de los Recursos Naturales
  • Departamento: Economía y Ciencias Sociales Agrarias
S2i 2020 Observatorio de investigación @ UPM con la colaboración del Consejo Social UPM
Cofinanciación del MINECO en el marco del Programa INNCIDE 2011 (OTR-2011-0236)
Cofinanciación del MINECO en el marco del Programa INNPACTO (IPT-020000-2010-22)