Observatorio de I+D+i UPM

Descripción
The purpose of this work is to provide a description of the heavy rainfall phenomenon on statistical tools from a Spanish region. We want to quantify the effect of the climate change to verify the rapidity of its evolution across the variation of the probability distributions. Our conclusions have special interest for the agrarian insurances, which may make estimates of costs more realistically. In this work, the analysis mainly focuses on: The distribution of consecutive days without rain for each gauge stations and season. We estimate density Kernel functions and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) for a network of station from the Ebro River basin until a threshold value u. We can establish a relation between distributional parameters and regional characteristics. Moreover we analyze especially the tail of the probability distribution. These tails are governed by law of power means that the number of events n can be expressed as the power of another quantity x : n(x) = x? . ? can be estimated as the slope of log-log plot the number of events and the size. The most convenient way to analyze n(x) is using the empirical probability distribution. Pr(X > x) ? x-?. The distribution of rainfall over percentile of order 0.95 from wet days at the seasonal scale and in a yearly scale with the same treatment of tails than in the previous section.
Internacional	Si
JCR del ISI	Si
Título de la revista	Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences
ISSN	1561-8633
Factor de impacto JCR	1,983
Información de impacto	Datos JCR del año 2011
Volumen	12
DOI
Número de revista
Desde la página	2127
Hasta la página	2137
Mes	SIN MES
Ranking

Esta actividad pertenece a memorias de investigación

• Autor: José Luis Valencia Delfa (UPM)
• Autor: Ana Maria Tarquis Alfonso (UPM)
• Autor: Antonio Saa Requejo (UPM)
• Autor: Jose Maria Gasco Montes (UPM)

• Creador: Grupo de Investigación: Valorización de Recursos
• Centro o Instituto I+D+i: Centro de Estudios e Investigación para la Gestión de Riesgos Agrarios Medioambientales (CEIGRAM)
• Grupo de Investigación: Grupo de Automatización en Señal y Comunicaciones (GASC)