Observatorio de I+D+i UPM

Descripción
Using the Bayesian approach as the model selection criteria, the main purpose in this study is to establish a practical road accident model that can provide a better interpretation and prediction performance. For this purpose we are using a structural explanatory model with autoregressive error term. The model estimation is carried out through Bayesian inference and the best model is selected based on the goodness of fit measures. To cross validate the model estimation further prediction analysis were done. As the road safety measures the number of fatal accidents in Spain, during 2000-2011 were employed. The results of the variable selection process show that the factors explaining fatal road accidents are mainly exposure, economic factors, and surveillance and legislative measures. The model selection shows that the impact of economic factors on fatal accidents during the period under study has been higher compared to surveillance and legislative measures.
Internacional	Si
JCR del ISI	No
Título de la revista	Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences
ISSN	1877-0428
Factor de impacto JCR
Información de impacto
Volumen	160
DOI	doi:10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.12.116
Número de revista
Desde la página	55
Hasta la página	63
Mes	SIN MES
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Esta actividad pertenece a memorias de investigación

• Autor: Bahar Dadashova . (UPM)
• Autor: Blanca del Valle Arenas Ramirez (UPM)
• Autor: Jose Manuel Mira Mcwilliams (UPM)
• Autor: Francisco Aparicio Izquierdo (UPM)

• Creador: Departamento: Ingeniería de Organización, Administración de Empresas y Estadística