|
Descripción
|
|
|---|---|
| A key requirement for effective coastal zone management is good knowledge of historical rates of change and the ability to predict future shoreline evolution, especially for rapidly eroding areas. Historical shoreline recession analysiswas used for the prediction of future cliff shoreline positions along a section of 9 kmbetween Bridlington and Hornsea, on the northern area of the Holderness Coast, UK. The analysis was based on historical maps and aerial photographs dating from 1852 to 2011 using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) 4.3, extension of ESRI?s ArcInfo 10.×. The prediction of future shorelines was performed for the next 40 years using a variety of techniques, ranging from extrapolation from historical data, geometric approaches like the historical trend analysis, to a process-response numerical model that incorporates physically-based equations and geotechnical stability analysis. With climate change and sea-level rise implying that historical rates of change may not be a reliable guide for the future, enhanced visualization of the evolving coastline has the potential to improve awareness of these changing conditions. Following the IPCC, 2013 report, two sea-level rise rates, 2 mm/yr and 6mm/yr, have been used to estimate future shoreline conditions. This study illustrated that good predictive models, once their limitations are estimated or at least defined, are available for use bymanagers, planners, engineers, scientists and the public to make better decisions regarding coastal management, development, and erosion-control strategies. | |
|
Internacional
|
Si |
|
JCR del ISI
|
Si |
|
Título de la revista
|
Geomorphology |
|
ISSN
|
0169-555X |
|
Factor de impacto JCR
|
2,785 |
|
Información de impacto
|
|
|
Volumen
|
230 |
|
DOI
|
|
|
Número de revista
|
|
|
Desde la página
|
146 |
|
Hasta la página
|
160 |
|
Mes
|
SIN MES |
|
Ranking
|
|