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Abstract
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| Spain?s Ministry of Transportation (MFOM) envisions to increase the railway share of goods transportation from 4.1% to 8-10% by 2020 in order to improve the roadway safety as well as decrease greenhouse emissions. This in turn implies that the volume of commercial motor vehicle (CMV) will potentially decrease. This paper was developed with the purpose of evaluating the impact of this potential decrease in CMV miles on road safety. For this purpose, the research team studied the data collected (2010) from two major freight corridors in Spain: Almería (south-east)-Barcelona (north-east) and Madrid (center)-Irún in the Vasque Country (north). To carry out the empirical study, the factors affecting the prediction of the road safety indicator were identified through negative binomial regression models. In order to estimate the effect of the CMV removal from the traffic flow, simulation scenarios with new traffic volume data were generated, assuming that CMV traffic decreases of 5%, 10% and 15%. The authors also considered the potential changes in the remaining traffic volume after the CMV volume decrease. It is assumed that the remaining traffic will either remain the same or increase due to induced traffic (i.e. rebalance of transportation supply and demand, or the attraction of more users to the roads because of reduced CMV traffic). New crash data was simulated using the potential scenarios where the CMV and remaining traffic volume change their values. Comparing the results of the simulated and observed crash data the authors observed that decreasing CMV volume may have both positive and negative impact on road safety. The direction of this impact is site-specific and significantly depends on the facility type. The research team also observed that the effect of the induced traffic is another important factor that should be taken into account when decreasing the truck volume. | |
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International
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Si |
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Congress
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Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting |
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960 |
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Place
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Washington DC, United States |
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Reviewers
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Si |
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ISBN/ISSN
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0000-0000 |
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Start Date
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08/01/2017 |
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End Date
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12/01/2017 |
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From page
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1 |
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To page
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15 |
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TRB 96th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers |