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Memorias de investigación
Communications at congresses:
An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis
Year:2013
Research Areas
  • Physics chemical and mathematical
Information
Abstract
Expert knowledge is used to assign probabilities to events in many risk analysis models. However, experts sometimes find it hard to provide specific values for these probabilities, preferring to express vague or imprecise terms that are mapped using a previously defined fuzzy number scale. The rigidity of these scales generates bias in the probability elicitation process and does not allow experts to adequately express their probabilistic judgments. We present an interactive method for extracting a fuzzy number from experts that represents their probabilistic judgments for a given event, along with a quality measure of the probabilistic judgments, useful in a final information filtering and analysis sensitivity process.
International
Si
Congress
The 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response
960
Place
Istanbul
Reviewers
Si
ISBN/ISSN
978-1-138-00019-3
Start Date
27/08/2013
End Date
29/08/2013
From page
223
To page
228
Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response
Participants
  • Autor: Eloy Vicente Cestero (UPM)
  • Autor: Antonio Jimenez Martin (UPM)
  • Autor: Alfonso Mateos Caballero (UPM)
Research Group, Departaments and Institutes related
  • Creador: Grupo de Investigación: Grupo de análisis de decisiones y estadística
  • Departamento: Inteligencia Artificial
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