Observatorio de I+D+i UPM

Memorias de investigación
Research Publications in journals:
First-order impacts on winter and summer crops assessed with various high-resolution climate models in the Iberian Peninsula
Year:2007
Research Areas
  • Crop production
Information
Abstract
The uncertainties of first-order agricultural impacts of climate change in the Iberian Peninsula were evaluated by linking crop simulation models to several high-resolution climate models (RCMs). The RCMs provided the daily weather data for control, and the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios. All RCMs used boundary conditions from the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) HadAM3 while two were also bounded to two other AGCMs. The analyses were standardised to control the sources of variation and uncertainties that were added in the process. Climatic impacts on wheat and maize of climate were derived from the A2 scenario generated by RCMs bounded to HadAM3. Some results derived from B2 scenarios are included for comparisons together with impacts derived from RCMs using different boundary conditions. Crop models were used as impact models and yield was used as an indicator that summarised the effects of climate to quantify initial impacts and differentiate among regions. Comparison among RCMs was made through the choice of different crop management options. All RCM-crop model combinations detected crop failures for winter wheat in the South under control and future scenarios, and projected yield increases for spring wheat in northern and high altitude areas. Although projected impacts differed among RCMs, similar trends emerged for relative yields for some regions. RCM-crop model outputs compared favourably to others using European Re-Analysis data (ERA-15), establishing the feasibility of using direct daily outputs from RCM for impact analysis. Uncertainties were quantified as the standard deviation of the mean obtained for all RCMs in each location and differed greatly between winter (wheat) and summer (maize) seasons, being smaller in the latter.
International
Si
JCR
Si
Title
CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISBN
0165-0009
Impact factor JCR
2,89
Impact info
Volume
81-1
Journal number
0
From page
343
To page
355
Month
MAYO
Ranking
Participants
  • Autor: Margarita Ruiz Ramos (UPM)
  • Autor: Miguel Quemada Saenz-Badillos (UPM)
  • Autor: Federico Sau Sau (UPM)
  • Autor: Carlos Gregorio Hernandez Diaz-Ambrona (UPM)
  • Autor: Maria Ines Minguez Tudela (UPM)
Research Group, Departaments and Institutes related
  • Creador: Grupo de Investigación: Grupo de Sistemas Agrarios (AgSystems)
  • Departamento: Biología Vegetal
  • Departamento: Producción Vegetal: Fitotecnia
S2i 2020 Observatorio de investigación @ UPM con la colaboración del Consejo Social UPM
Cofinanciación del MINECO en el marco del Programa INNCIDE 2011 (OTR-2011-0236)
Cofinanciación del MINECO en el marco del Programa INNPACTO (IPT-020000-2010-22)