Observatorio de I+D+i UPM

Memorias de investigación
Research Publications in journals:
Climate change impacts on EU agriculture: A regionalized perspective taking into account market-driven adjustments
Year:2017
Research Areas
  • Economic models,
  • Climate change,
  • Agrarian economy
Information
Abstract
The biophysical and economic consequences of climate change for agriculture are surrounded by uncertainties. The evaluation of climate change impacts on global and regional agriculture has been studied at length. In most cases, however, global and regional impacts are examined separately. Here we present a regionalized assessment ? for the 2030 time horizon ? covering the whole European Union while accounting for market feedback through international markets. To account for uncertainty on climate effects, we defined several simulation scenarios that differ as to climate projections and assumptions on the degree of carbon fertilization. Biophysical simulations show that crop productivity effects are largely determined by the degree of carbon fertilization, leading to decreased productivity in the absence of carbon fertilization and increased productivity otherwise. The magnitude of those effects differs across regions and crops, with maize being one of the most negatively affected in the EU. Economic simulations show that, while, on the whole, crop price effects attenuate the global impacts of climate change, aggregate results conceal significant regional disparities and their related trade adjustment. These results suggest that a multi-scale perspective is helpful for assessing climate change impacts on agriculture, as it will improve understanding of how regional and global agrifood markets respond to climate change and how these responses interact with each other.
International
Si
JCR
Si
Title
Agricultural Systems
ISBN
0308-521X
Impact factor JCR
2,867
Impact info
Datos JCR del año 2015
Volume
156
10.1016/j.agsy.2017.05.013
Journal number
From page
52
To page
66
Month
SIN MES
Ranking
Participants
  • Autor: Maria Blanco Fonseca (UPM)
  • Autor: Fabien Ramos (Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Joint Research Centre (JRC), Italy)
  • Autor: Benjamin Van Doorslaer (Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Joint Research Centre (JRC), Spain)
  • Autor: M. Pilar Martinez Muñoz (UPM)
  • Autor: Davide Fumagalli (Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Joint Research Centre (JRC), Italy)
  • Autor: Andrej Ceglar (Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Joint Research Centre (JRC), Italy)
  • Autor: Francisco Jose Fernandez Jorquera (UPM)
Research Group, Departaments and Institutes related
  • Creador: Grupo de Investigación: Economía Agraria y Gestión de los Recursos Naturales
  • Centro o Instituto I+D+i: Centro de Estudios e Investigación para la Gestión de Riesgos Agrarios Medioambientales (CEIGRAM). Centro Mixto UPM-AGROMUTUA-ENESA
  • Departamento: Economía Agraria, Estadística y Gestión de Empresas
S2i 2020 Observatorio de investigación @ UPM con la colaboración del Consejo Social UPM
Cofinanciación del MINECO en el marco del Programa INNCIDE 2011 (OTR-2011-0236)
Cofinanciación del MINECO en el marco del Programa INNPACTO (IPT-020000-2010-22)